morsdeis: blog 
morsdeus' blog
lessons learned from yesterday
Published Nov. 4, 2009Views: 711
I think the media is blowing the importance of yesterday's races way out of proportion (gotta sensationalize for ratings). There probably are a few lessons which can be learned, however.
First, The NJ and VA gubanatorial race outcomes should have come as no surprise. Both states traditionally elect a governor from the opposite party of the seated president. They both almost always do and we should not expect them to break with tradition. Secondly, Corzine had deplorable favorablility ratings and was a pretty terrible governor. I think the broader mesage to take home from the NJ race is how badly it speaks against the red ticket that they did not win by a landslide against someone as unfavorable as Corzine.
The other message from the gubanatorial races is told via exit polling. The majority of voters explicitly claimed that they approve of Obama and that their vote was not a reflection of him or his policies. Again, Corzine was terrible and unliked. If they voted against him, it is not a reflection on the current direction of our nation, but a reflection of Corzine's last term. (I don't know the dynamics of the VA race, but they too polled that they approved of Obama and their vote was not influenced by him).
The most important message comes from a little rural district in upstate NY. I would normally say a congressional district cannot tell us much about hte nation as a whole and I do not think it in any way reflects upon what can happen in 2010, but it can tell us something very very important.
The GOP selected a candidate they thought reflected the values of the NY23 constituency. This is a rural, predominately white, middle class constiuency that has had a Republican representative for over 100 years. Scozzafava was selected to represent them by the GOP.
The problem came when de facto party leaders chimed in claiming she was too liberal to run on the GOP ticket. This was despite the fact that she opposed health care and was endorsed by the NRA and despite the fact that those chiming in WERE NOT FROM NY23!
Thus, enter Hoffman. Hoffman too was not from NY23, did not know the issues facing the people of NY23, but he was staunchly conservative and backed by the de facto conservative leaders, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, and Fred Thompson. He received more than half of his funding from the tea party organizers, Freedom Works, and the next biggest chunk from a religious conservative group even most on the right thinks is fundamental.
In short, they pushed further to the right instead of appealing to the center. This is a microcosm of the largest debate regarding the future of the GOP.
Hoffman lost and NY23 elected their first Democratic representative in over 100 years.
More than anything that happened yesterday, therein lies the most important lesson to be learned. And the lesson goes out to the GOP.
Far right conservatism is not the one-size-fits-all philosophy that fits anywhere in America as Palin, Beck, and Armey seem to propose. The people of NY23 have always voted Republican and i believe that had the race been between Owens and Scozzafava alone, the seat would today be held by a Republican.
The people of that district may consider themselves conservative and republican but still support personal freedoms such as the right to marry and make decisions about your body. They may have been pro-gun and anti-government healthcare and for smaller government but they voted for a Democrat because the right wing pushed too far to the right and alienated them.
I think endorsements by Palin and Beck only hurt the Hoffman ticket even more. Palin has very low approval ratings and only 1% of America listens to Beck's programming.
So the lesson the GOP needs to take in before 2010 is that continuing to push farther and farther right will only alienate Americans away from the party and attract centrists to the Democrats.
As Newt Gingrich said regarding the NY23 race, If you try to form the perfect minority, you will remain the minority.
Filed under: News & Issues
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Meaning, I can't dispute what newt said, so I will ignore it.
GOLO member since May 8, 2008
November 5, 2009 2:42 p.m.
I wonder what his agenda would look like if most of the state's governors were turned to Republicans.
That would be an interesting situation.
GOLO member since December 12, 2007
November 4, 2009 11:52 p.m.
Not true. You have the decline in the youth vote across the board because they feel like their vote is wasted on a person who don't ask them if what they are doing goes with their beliefs.
A vote for someone who does not have their interests is a wasted vote, in their opinion.
GOLO member since December 12, 2007
November 4, 2009 11:50 p.m.
You can not be centrist if your actions have all been to the far left.
GOLO member since December 12, 2007
November 4, 2009 11:46 p.m.
1. The Train is on the tracks. Mors: That has nothing to do with what we are doing.
2. The light on the train is on. Mors: Stop blowing everything out of proportion.
3. The train is getting closer. Mors: Stop Nagging me - what you are saying has no evidence to back it up.
4. The Whistle is blowing - it is about 500 feet away. Mors: Stop telling mis-truths - the tracks are clear.
5. The other person moves off the tracks, and MORS is hit by the train. Mors: OMG - you could have told me it was coming!
There are certain dominoes that fall that cause the rest of them to fall. In politics, there are certain races that cause the rest of the political scene to change.
Those two races, were two such dominoes.
Denier!
GOLO member since December 12, 2007
November 4, 2009 11:45 p.m.
----------------
I knew all you Lefties would be agreeing with the newt (funny!) and that it would only be a matter of time before I read such a comment on goLO. You guys are sooooo predictable ;-)
GOLO member since April 24, 2008
November 4, 2009 2:03 p.m.
I agree the GOP will inevitably gain some seats in 2010. For one, you have a decline in the youth vote who tend to only turn out for presidential elections. You also have some disenchantment from red states that went blue in 08 and may likely go back red, depending on the candidates.
More than anything, it rests upon what happens between now and 2010.
GOLO member since January 16, 2009
November 4, 2009 12:07 p.m.
The implication will be pround. Here's why:
Pres. Obama's agenda will slow down. Moderate Democrats who wish to retain their seats in the House and Senate will take notice of the VA and NJ gubenatorial races. Both of those govenors had to run on their own. They didn't have the Obama factor to carry them over the top (i.e. Perdue and Hagan).
Also, Obama is probably going to be careful as to who he lends his time with. He can't afford to look as if he cannot deliver for his candidates. If that were determined, his will find himself in a 'lame duck' situation early in his presidency.
Does this mean that in 2010, the GOP will re-take the House and Senate. Probably not. That doesn't mean that they won't at least pick up more seats.
GOLO member since October 9, 2007
November 4, 2009 11:56 a.m.
LOL this is as good an excuse as any to use. I hadn't heard this one yet. I think they won because America is getting tired of non stop bills and excessive taxes and spending with same old politicians and they want new blood..........Something people have been trying to tell the media for months and they have to put their own reasons and spins on the thinking of America and call them names when they were objecting in town hall meetings.
GOLO member since July 7, 2007
November 4, 2009 11:51 a.m.
GOLO member since January 25, 2008
November 4, 2009 11:23 a.m.
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