danriverboy: blog 
danriverboy's blog
electoral projection - update
Published Oct. 12, 2008
These are the latest electoral projections.
Examining the map, consider this: Assuming McCain holds EVERY state that's shown in red, pink and yellow on the map, he'll have 218 electoral votes.
That scenario would leave him needing to find 52 additional electoral votes from the states shown in dark and light blue in order to win the presidency.
This data is from Pollster.com, which pretty much pulls in every poll it can find. To be fair to everyone, Realclearpolitics.com, which typically leans right, has the spread at Obama 277, McCain 158, Tossup 103. Fivethirtyeight.com, which typically leans left, has it at 349 Obama, 189 McCain.
So, here's my question: Let's assume that McCain will indeed hold all of those red, pink and yellow states. Do you feel that he can find the extra 52 votes he'll need, and, examining the map, where do you believe that those 52 electoral votes will come from?
To assist you in making projections, these are the states in dark and light blue, and their respective number of electoral votes. States that are realistically considered to be up in the air (i.e. Obama has a slim lead in those states, but within a small enough margin to indicate a possible swing before November) are bolded:
CA: 55
CO: 9
CT: 7
DC: 3
DE: 3
FL: 27
HI: 4
IA: 7
IL: 21
MA: 12
MD: 10
ME: 4
MI: 17
MN: 10
NH: 4
NJ: 15
NM: 5
OH: 20
OR: 7
PA: 21
RI: 4
VT: 3
WA: 11
WI: 10
(polite request: no bashing of either candidate or partisan nonsense from either side, please. Those comments WILL be deleted. Please focus only on the electoral spread and your opinions on how you believe it will shake out. )
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GOLO member since August 15, 2007
October 15, 2008 10:53 p.m.
very true. I think it's time to move from the Bradley effect and stop using excuses for why people vote so much. I still say polls should be done away with. They are misleading and it's nothing to do with black nor white. It depends on who gets called on that certain day. Maybe one day it happens to be more republicans than democrats and vice versa. I often wondered how Bradley came up with that theory or did he get all that attention off of excuses when he lost. Did everyone tell him this or something he imagined to be.
GOLO member since July 7, 2007
October 12, 2008 6:11 p.m.
White people who claim they will vote for black candidate switch their vote on the last day." - JM
I don't discount the possibility of a 'reverse' Bradley effect in this election either. I personally know conservatives who (privately) no longer feel they can support McCain, but due to the potential reactions of their peers, will not make it known until they're in the voting booth. This phenomenon is likely to (at the very least) nullify the "Bradley effect."
GOLO member since March 18, 2008
October 12, 2008 4:51 p.m.
I am witness to that but from the looks of it if democrats completely control then they will have at least 8 years and then possibly longer so the reasoning is we should let the dem's have it for about 12 years and see what happens. then we can switch. That way the bickering stops and work gets done and no one can blame anyone else for the blunders. Sounds like a plan to me. The the independents can have a shot at it. Think how much we could do for the country without all the fussing and squabbling. We are already loosing our democracy to fraud voting, closed door policies, scratching each others backs. That way we can do away with polls, and blunders. I don't put stock in polls DRB because to me polls are only as good as the people who they are polling. If they called and asked everyone registered then I'd believe in polls.
GOLO member since July 7, 2007
October 12, 2008 3:23 p.m.
GOLO member since October 8, 2008
October 12, 2008 3:10 p.m.
that's a dangerous situation. Well at least the democrats can't blame the republicans anymore for the country's messes it may get in.
GOLO member since July 7, 2007
October 12, 2008 3:00 p.m.
GOLO member since October 8, 2008
October 12, 2008 2:50 p.m.
GOLO member since August 15, 2007
October 12, 2008 2:43 p.m.
White people who claim they will vote for black candidate switch their vote on the last day.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
GOLO member since October 8, 2008
October 12, 2008 1:47 p.m.
"Leaning" in these polls takes the last few polls (sometimes as many as the last 10, or as few as the last two) and sees if a candidate is increasing his points. This, more accurately, is a 'trend' in the past few polls.
This does not mean, for example, that Obama is actually ahead of McCain in a given state. It only means that he's closing the distance on the leader.
Of course, the ONLY poll that matters is the one on election day.
Also, this map projection is of electoral college votes. The actual numerical vote may be incredibly close, and the E.C. vote be very lopsided.
Remember, Bush LOST the popular vote in 2000 by half a million votes, but won the E.C. vote.
GOLO member since July 15, 2007
October 12, 2008 12:12 p.m.
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