steve crisp: blog 
steve crisp's blog
time to rub it in :)
Published Sep. 6, 2008
Thursday morning at about noon, I put up a blog that offered my forecast for Hanna. Here is what I said:
"My gut feeling is a landfall as a middling category 1 hurricane somewhere between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington with the eye passing between Raleigh and Rocky Mount before it curves hard to the right and exits North Carolina somewhere around the Virginia border. "
This was when all outlets were calling for landfall well north of Wilmington and a track that skirted the coast with the eye over Pamlico Sound.
Though I may be jumping the gun a bit here, it is apparent that the eye of Hanna is coming in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Winds are just over hurricane force at the eyewall. And the forecast track is placing the eye to pass between Raleigh and Rocky Mount leaning toward RM.
Got the landfall correct. Missed the sustained wind speed by about 5 to 8 mph, though gusts will be at 80 or a bit higher. And it looks like I will be dead on with the track. Thirty six hours out.
Irishiii....eat your heart out.
Neener, neener, neener... :)
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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Even so, none of the images in that sequence show Hanna making landfall at the NC/SC line which is where it came in. Even if you want to insist that two or three of the images indicate a landfall close enough to Wilmington to spit at, that still is a far cry from a decided landfall well to the south at the state line.
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September 6, 2008 10:45 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:26 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:25 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:24 a.m.
Run the loop and stop it at 11 am, 4 September image. The center track is decidedly northeast of Wilmington and well to the east of where the actual track is heading. They kept the track eastward until the 11 pm updates that night when they started shifting it back to the west. And yeah, I know that the center track is merely a statistical representation of the entire cone of probability, but that's the reference for the cone itself.
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September 6, 2008 6:20 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:20 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:19 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:14 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:06 a.m.
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September 6, 2008 6:03 a.m.
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