steve crisp: blog 
steve crisp's blog
so let's talk about bertha
Published Jul. 5, 2008
If you haven't been paying attention, Bertha has formed way out in the Atlantic as a tropical storm. That is itself rather unusual since it began its life as a tropical wave coming off off Africa, then intensified. Usually you don't see this kind of development until August or September, though it certainly is not unheard of.
Bertha is so far out that it is really hard to predict what it will do and where it will go. Right now it is over water that is somewhat too cool to really energize the storm, but for each day the convection stays intact, the storm is moving over water that is about one degree warmer than the day before. By day three, Bertha will be over water that is warm enough to spur increasing intensity. But where will it go?
Again, not sure yet. There are a couple of atmospheric features that will help steer Bertha by day four and five, but none of the models are quite sure just how influential any of them will be. There is one particular chart that is very interesting, though. It is found here.
If you will notice, there is a center track surrounded by a cone of probability. The way the National Weather Service makes its prediction and creates these charts is that the cone represents the potential path of the storm with an EQUAL probability of the center being located anywhere within that cone. It does NOT mean that the center track is that one of greatest probability. That is a fine distinction that you need to understand It nonetheless makes for an interesting scenario if you extend that center path from the shown five day model.
I just think it's rather interesting that Bertha is predicted to be on the same track -- as of now -- as Fran. Of course, Edouard in the same year followed that same initial track, then pulled north missing us completely. Time will tell.
I'd keep an eye on this one, though.
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I always like to make toast and drink milk during the storms...isn't that what you do? the milk and bread are always sold out
GOLO member since July 5, 2007
July 7, 2008 2:20 p.m.
July 6, 2008 2:18 p.m.
GOLO member since July 2, 2007
July 6, 2008 12:22 a.m.
GOLO member since July 19, 2007
July 5, 2008 8:49 p.m.
I wouldn't mind the rain of a tropical depression, just no hurricanes!
GOLO member since January 20, 2008
July 5, 2008 12:44 p.m.
GOLO member since July 3, 2007
July 5, 2008 12:37 p.m.
GOLO member since July 5, 2007
July 5, 2008 12:28 p.m.
GOLO member since October 18, 2007
July 5, 2008 11:54 a.m.
FEMA aint the thang.
Neither is going to a shelter.
GOLO member since July 15, 2007
July 5, 2008 11:42 a.m.
I opened the front door and it was almost comletely calm. So I grabbed my stuff and went outside, turned left and got to the corner of the building.
It's really amazing how a three story brick wall will completely block hurricane force winds. As soon as I hit that corner, I was no longer on the lee side of the building and got slammed full force by Fran.
I thought my skin was gonna get ripped off.
I got the plastic up, but it didn't hold. Rather than making repairs, I decided it would be more effective to just sop up any water which breeched with towels.
Val still laughs about it.
GOLO member since July 3, 2007
July 5, 2008 11:41 a.m.
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