Fact Check: Has NC caught up on jobs since recession?
Gov. Pat McCrory says, "North Carolina has now recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession." That's right, but is it really good news?
Posted — Updated"North Carolina has now recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession," McCrory said in a statement. "We will remain focused on long-term job creation because North Carolina will continue to attract people and businesses."
McCrory's news release goes on to cite the following statistics: "In October, 4,183,900 people (nonfarm, seasonally adjusted) were employed in the state, which exceeds the pre-recession high of 4,174,500 in February 2008. North Carolina experienced 24 months of continuous employment decline until the number of people employed bottomed out at 3,839,200 in February 2013."
The bigger question, Sinclair said, is what would the job total have been if it did not get stuck in a recessionary rut.
"The problem with that statistic is it doesn't account for any population change over the past seven years," Quinterno said of the payroll jobs number.
According to the census, North Carolina's population grew from 9.3 million in 2008 to 9.9 million in 2013. That means more people are competing for the same number of jobs, although presumably some of that population growth was driven by retirees and children who wouldn't be seeking employment.
Put another way, North Carolina's unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.3 percent in October, far lower than the 11.3 percent high it hit in January 2010 but not quite back to the 5.1 percent it was hovering around in January-February 2008. Also, that number doesn't take into account people who would like to work but have given up looking for jobs.
At North Carolina's current pace of job creation, Quinterno said, it will take the state six years to create enough jobs so that the state will have truly caught up to its pre-recession pace.
"Over the first 10 months of the year, payroll employment in North Carolina expanded by 1.9 percent. The comparable rate in 2013 was 2 percent, and in 2012, the comparable rate was 1.6 percent. These rates are consistent with a sluggish recovery," Quinterno said.
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