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@NCCapitol

Fact Check: Did 60 percent of NC's population back gay marriage ban?

Posted October 9, 2014
Updated October 10, 2014

— Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican challenger Thom Tillis met Thursday night for a third debate of the U.S. Senate campaign.  

Fact Check Logo Fact Check: Political claims WRAL News and others have fact-checked many of the statements Hagan and Tillis have made over the course of the first two debates, and many of the claims in the third debate were repeats.

But one statement jumped out as particularly newsworthy.

The candidates were asked about a recent action by the U.S. Supreme Court and other federal courts that could clear the way for same-sex marriages in North Carolina. Tillis, as speaker of the House, and Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger are using a relatively new state law to claim standing in the case and battle to keep North Carolina's current ban on gay marriage in place. 

In answer to the question, Tillis said, "28 months ago, 60 percent of the people of North Carolina decided that they wanted to define marriage as an institution between a man and a woman."

This is a relatively easy numbers question, and it's pretty clear that Tillis is overstating the case. 

Results from the May 8, 2012, primary election show 1,317,178 voters backed the marriage amendment; 840,802 voters opposed it. While that means 61 percent of those who voted backed the amendment, it doesn't mean 61 percent of all North Carolinians did or do today. 

North Carolina's current population is closing in on 10 million people. The 2010 Census fixed the state's population at 9.5 million, and in July 2012, just after the referendum, the best-guess estimate was 9.7 million

Strictly speaking, roughly 1.3 million out of those 9.7 million people, or 13 percent of the state's population, cast ballots in favor of the amendment. Granted, those were the folks who showed up, so they had the largest voice in the matter.

However, it would be misleading to say that only 13 percent of the state backed marriage. Polls at the time predicted the ballot measure would win handily. Public Policy Polling, a Democratic pollster, for example, predicted 59 percent of voters would back the amendment.

Another caveat: There are 6.6 million registered voters in the state, which leaves the opinions of at least 3 million people unaccounted for in election-oriented surveys, although a lot of those are people under the age of 18.

The importance of registered voters versus general population comes into focus by looking at the Elon University Poll from April 2012, which drew its sample from all North Carolina residents. It found, "Six out of 10 people in North Carolina would oppose an amendment to the state constitution that prevents any same-sex marriages, domestic partnerships or civil unions, according to the latest Elon University Poll." Only 32 percent of state residents backed the amendment as described by the poll.

The differences between the PPP and Elon polls suggest there was a gap in the attitudes of North Carolinians generally, and those who showed up to vote. The two polls also suggest that 32 percent may be closer to the low-water mark for anti-gay marriage attitudes in the state, rather than 13 percent. 

It's worth noting that Republicans had more hotly contested races during that 2012 primary, which turned up GOP turnout compared with Democrats. Since Republican voters are, in general, more socially conservative than Democrats, it's a fair bet that the electorate for that primary was somewhat more disposed toward the amendment than the general population. 

Also, it appears that attitudes are shifting. A recent Elon University Poll found "More likely voters said they supported (45%) same-sex marriage than opposed (43%). These numbers changed only slightly when looking at registered voters or residents."

It's also worth noting that 61 percent of people in that survey who said they were backing Tillis also favored the ban on gay marriage. Of those supporting Hagan, 67 supported allowing for same-sex marriage. 

Fact Check Yellow THE CALL: If Tillis had said 60 percent of "voters" or "those who voted" had decided to ban gay marriage, this claim would be getting a green light on our fact-checking scale. To say that 60 percent of all North Carolinians backed the amendment at the polls certainly overstates voter turnout and appears to overstate the overall support for the amendment. While Tillis was not making the 60 percent number up out of the clear blue sky, he did attach it to the wrong set of people during the heat of the debate. Earlier in the day, his office was careful to attribute the number to voters rather than the entire population. He gets a yellow light for the claim.

138 Comments

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  • Smilester Oct 15, 2014

    Why are the current Republicans (Tillis, McCrory, Berger) such snake oil salesmen. I see a lot of comments about how lazy people didn't get out and vote against this law. Keep in mind that the snake oil salesmen mentioned above put this amendment forth during a primary election for a reason. The reason was that they knew the Republican turnout would be a lot larger during the primary than during the general election. The fact that only 60% of voters voted this amendment through during a primary which mainly involved Republicans is telling. Personally I could care less on the issue. I do know that federal law trumps state law due to the Supremacy clause and that I don't want to see more frivolous spending of state money to defend the agenda imposed by Tillis & Berger. How many times do they have to be smacked down by the Judiciary Branch before they quit wasting money defending laws that never should have been written?

  • Sam Nada Oct 14, 2014
    user avatar

    The Constitution guarantees equality of rights. There is no legal or rational basis for denying equal rights to consenting adults. We don't live in a theocracy, so someone's idea of some god's law is irrelevant. Federal law trumps state law. Voters in a state can't override the Constitution. End result same sex marriage, and all its legal benefits for everyone, will be upheld. Get used to it, and move on.

  • thewatchman Oct 14, 2014

    REGARDING THE ARTICLE ITSELF. IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW MANY PEOPLE VOTED IN THE ELECTION. THE FACT IS THAT 100 % OF REGISTERED VOTERS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO VOTE. BECAUSE MANY CHOSE NOT TO VOTE IS IRREVERANT. IT THOSE WHO DECIDE TO VOTE DECIDES AN ELECTION. THIS STATION WOULD DO WELL TO STICK WITH THE FACTS RATHER THAN TRY TO GENERATE AN INVALID POINT.

  • Hip-Shot Oct 14, 2014

    In reference to the question posed by the title of the article: only if you believe the portion that voted represented a fair and unbiased sample/size.

    I myself am against same sex marriage however I do not have to answer up for MY actions in the end.

  • Tony Snark Oct 14, 2014

    View quoted thread


    So, none.

  • bmac813 Oct 14, 2014

    View quoted thread


    Which God, The one you will ANSWER to when you Die.

  • Tony Snark Oct 14, 2014

    View quoted thread


    A) "he has nothing to do with equal rights" is a sad statement.
    B) which god?

  • lprop Oct 14, 2014

    It don't matter how many laws we make, break or change ,God will be the final judge for all of us. Has nothing to do with equal rights.

  • mediawatcher Oct 14, 2014

    View quoted thread


    If you had been paying attention, you would know. Clay Aiken supports equality for everybody but his main focus is on veterans rights, education and fair and proper representation in Congress for all citizens in his district. Don't count him out yet.

  • bowens44 Oct 13, 2014

    View quoted thread


    The law and the amendment are null and void.

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