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Experts say fall 2017 is going to be unusually hot

Posted July 26

If you think of fall as the perfect time to curl up by the fire with a steaming cup of hot apple cider, you might want to revise your plans this year. According to The Weather Channel, most of the country can expect above-average temperatures from September through November.

The exception is the Pacific Northwest, which will likely experience normal to cooler-than-average temperatures. This map shows a breakdown of the type of weather each part of the country can anticipate.

As for rain? The three-month forecast shows that parts of Alaska, as well as the American Southwest and South, will have more rain than they typically do during the late summer and early fall, while parts of the Pacific Northwest are expected to have less rain than usual during that time. Sounds like you may have warm trick-or-treating weather this year!

So what’s behind the balmy temperatures? One factor is that the development of El Nino is not likely to occur this fall and winter.

“It appears as though the weak attempt at El Niño has failed, and latest models and observations suggest that the La Niña base state is here to stay,” Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company, told The Weather Channel.

Global climate change also likely plays a role, as temperatures all over the world spike. This June was 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (.82 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average, according to Jake Crouch, a climate scientist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information-Climate Monitoring Branch. It was also the third-warmest June on record-only June 2015 and June 2016 were warmer. In fact, at just over the halfway mark, 2017 is currently on pace to be the second-hottest year on record. (The hottest year on record is 2016).

global warming photo
Getty Images | David McNew

Global carbon emissions have slowed down recently, but the gas lingers in the atmosphere and drives up temperatures. So, there’s not a direct correlation between the carbon emissions and temperatures in single year.

“The annual increase is still above 2 [parts per million] per year. I think that is directly linked to the fact that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production are also at a record high. That is directly linked,” Pieter Tans, lead scientist at NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, told Scientific American. “Now, the temperature increase is also directly linked to high CO2, but maybe not on a year-to-year basis.”

No matter the cause, it seems like warmer weather is here to stay for much of the country, so don’t pack away those swimsuits just yet!

This story originally appeared on Simplemost. Checkout Simplemost for other great tips and ideas to make the most out of life.


3 Comments

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  • Steve Escabar Jul 28, 9:42 a.m.
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    View quoted thread



    Kenneth and CO2 is what effects water vapor which in turn causes Anthropogenic climate change, according to scientist

    https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/its-water-vapor-not-the-co2.html

  • Linda Tally Jul 27, 10:03 p.m.
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    Less rain during the fall will produce some additional fire danger next summer for the Pacific Northwest - otherwise, I'm kinda happy with this forecast for this area!

  • Kenneth Jones Jul 27, 5:52 p.m.
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    Number 1 cause of global warming is H2O while CO2 is the least. Why focus on the least likely culprit? Because there is no money to be made trying to stop clouds from forming. Temps are based on global average, not one location. This story is a joke.