European model predicts a (slightly) warmer Thursday low
Posted January 7, 2015
You may have heard me talk about the European Global Forecast Model and how verification scores do indeed show its overall superiority to the US Global Model. But that doesn't mean it's better every day at every forecast hour for every parameter for every location!
I'm very curious as to how low our temperatures will get Wednesday night. Why? The European guidance has been saying consistently that we and everyone else are forecasting lows that are too cold. Look at the numbers below comparing the two models for all forecasts of Thursday morning's minimum temperature since this past Friday night:
|7pm Fri 132 hour forecast||15||13|
|7am Sat 120 hour forecast||16||14|
|7pm Sat 108 hour forecast||19||14|
|7am Sun 96 hour forecast||18||13|
|7pm Sun 84 hour forecast||19||13|
|7am Mon 72 hour forecast||19||13|
|7pm Mon 60 hour forecast||18||13|
|7am Tue 48 hour forecast||18||13|
|7pm Tue 36 hour forecast||18||13|
Don't get me wrong, no matter which column verifies, it's gonna be cold! But those differences are significant!
So why are we going so cold? Well, of course: we're the media and we love to hype stuff, right?
Actually, I hate hype as much as most of you do. We actually think the air mass arriving here Thursday morning will be that cold. When you look at the source region of this air mass, it supports the idea of lows in the 10-15 range. But the ultimate proof, one way or the other, will come tomorrow morning around 7 a.m.
The models have spoken, and we have spoken. We await the decision from above.