WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

European model predicts a (slightly) warmer Thursday low

Posted January 7, 2015

You may have heard me talk about the European Global Forecast Model and how verification scores do indeed show its overall superiority to the US Global Model. But that doesn't mean it's better every day at every forecast hour for every parameter for every location!

I'm very curious as to how low our temperatures will get Wednesday night. Why? The European guidance has been saying consistently that we and everyone else are forecasting lows that are too cold. Look at the numbers below comparing the two models for all forecasts of Thursday morning's minimum temperature since this past Friday night:

please wait

Don't get me wrong, no matter which column verifies, it's gonna be cold! But those differences are significant!

So why are we going so cold? Well, of course: we're the media and we love to hype stuff, right?

Actually, I hate hype as much as most of you do. We actually think the air mass arriving here Thursday morning will be that cold. When you look at the source region of this air mass, it supports the idea of lows in the 10-15 range. But the ultimate proof, one way or the other, will come tomorrow morning around 7 a.m.

The models have spoken, and we have spoken. We await the decision from above.


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  • notexactly Jan 8, 2015

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    Then move to a third world country then. If you don't like 5 then don't watch. obviously you do since you are still watching and using their blog. Folks like you are good entertainment complaining about something but still using or watching what you are complaining about. Sounds kinda uneducated to me.

  • notexactly Jan 8, 2015

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    Really? My thermometer was dead on our predictions. Its was 13 at 5am and 12 at 6am. pretty dead on if you ask me. I really don't want to trust anything European.

  • Fred Kozlof Jan 8, 2015
    user avatar

    5RS...sorry, THIS is not normal winter weather for Raleigh.
    Greg..keep up the good work. I'm delighted to see the rigor in your work.
    Finally...it is now Thursday am, and the American model was closest. I live in Cary and morning temp was 12.
    Keep up the good work, and your enthusiastic style of reporting.

  • bcde Jan 8, 2015

    I think not, as it it almost 9 am and it is saying it is 14 which is closer to the American model. I think it was possibly 13 at 7am, but I wasn't close to a computer.

  • Hari Nootsak Jan 8, 2015
    user avatar

    The Lapland model got it right! One of 3 ponds has already glazed over with ice, and the Canadian geese even protested. BOO-chilly

  • kbdeters Jan 7, 2015

    "Fishel: Have we over-hyped Thursday's cold?"

    Yes, yes you have.

  • Tom Shute Jan 7, 2015
    user avatar

    Normal winter weather. Why does the media overhype what is normal? Every year Minnesota is 20 or more below, cold fronts dip to the Gulf, Buffalo gets many feet of snow, and Raleigh gets to the teens or below. While it is nice to have the warnings and advance knowledge (thank you), the incessant hype is nauseating.

  • veyor Jan 7, 2015

    I like to give credit when it's due. I appreciate the comparison.

  • Claytonmomof2 Jan 7, 2015

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    No thanks, I prefer the people here and occasional snow to play in with the kids :)

  • Betty Lanier Jan 7, 2015
    user avatar

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    Who is "WE"? do you have a french mouse in your pocket?