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Report: Triangle growth to exceed national average

Posted May 16, 2012

Economy
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— A new regional economic forecast from PNC Bank has good news for the Triangle area, from more jobs to better pay and improving home prices.

More jobs mean the region’s unemployment rate will drop to 8 percent from 8.3 percent in March, says PNC Economist Mekael Teshome. The Triangle is forecast to increase jobs by nearly 2 percent vs. a 1.6 percent increase nationally.

Family incomes should increase 4.4 percent, better than the 3.8 percent expected across the country.

Home prices, meanwhile, should increase 0.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2013, reversing four years of decline even as housing prices nationwide look to fall 2.4 percent this year before climbing 1.6 percent next year.

The data has Teshome thinking positively about the market, which PNC defines as Raleigh, Durham, Goldsboro and Rocky Mount metro areas.

The state considers the Triangle market as Raleigh-Durham-Cary-Chapel Hill and says unemployment was 7.8 percent in March.

“The Raleigh market’s economic recovery is set to top the nation’s in 2012 and 2013,” he wrote in the report.

“Raleigh and Durham metros will lead the pack as education, healthcare, tech and professional services drive above-average payroll growth.”

Teshome estimates that jobs will continue to be added to the point that payrolls should “exceed their pre-recession peak around mid-2013.”

However, because the area’s population continues to grow, Teshome cautioned that job growth “will barely keep up with labor force entrants.” Because of that, he does not foresee a big drop in unemployment.

Teshome’s forecast of 1.9 percent growth in jobs coincides with a recent Forbes report of 2 percent. That estimate ranked the Triangle as one of the nation’s best for job growth.

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  • Comfortably Numb May 16, 2012

    Huffington Post is reporting right now that some of the Greek banks are failing. They are out of money. Get ready.

  • storchheim May 16, 2012

    "if PNC is so confident they should lend people money that are having a hard time,since they think everyone will soon be back to work it will not be such a risk." muggs

    +100 if I could!

  • muggs May 16, 2012

    It just may be we have far too many trying to right the wrongs we have encountered,I fail to see how the President,either side, will have that great of an impact,they all will be argueing their agendas with the same Senate,and Congress for the most part,with China,Middle East and many Latin America companies now having US roots but a foreign workforce the jobs that do get created here soon are shipped overseas once the methods are perfected,we actually are teaching those that take our jobs,have a friend who was with American Express for 10 years actually had to teach in India before getting layed off in order to get his severance pay,more like blackmail money.

  • muggs May 16, 2012

    smdrn, After reading your comment regarding the construction industry converting W2's to 1099ers,you have hit on subject that is very true but in many cases,especially the small independents it is almost impossible for them to compete anymore by doing so all above board,not knocking the Hispanics but to price work against them and having to pay taxes,workmans comp and a host of others it just is impossible to be competitive,the small masonry or framing contractor in residential work has been infiltrated by the migration of cheap labor and tax smart Hispanics that have entered into the industry,there could and should be some sort of break for these small contractors that want to be legal but are just not able to,with the housing market and residential building business being at a all time low we need to support this industry as we do others in order to get some back to work,the 1099 system is one way,but it also has some legal ramifications if a injury or liability claim comes

  • nighttrain2010 May 16, 2012

    >>“Raleigh and Durham metros will lead the pack as education, healthcare, tech and professional services drive above-average payroll growth.”

    Yes and most of them are even lower paying jobs when real inflation is taken into account. I have had five jobs in the past 12 years. Two companies out of business, went through two layoffs, and the most recent one I am actively looking as they have had one major layoff and expect the company to wrap up its activities in RTP within 6-9 months. The good thing? There ARE jobs out there. The bad thing? Base salaries are practically the same, if not lower, as they were in 2003. Thank God I will have a new job in 2-3 weeks. But it will be for practically the same pay.

    And yet gasoline, food, daily expenditures,etc. aren't at 2003 levels....

  • WooHoo2You May 16, 2012

    Sorry, but he has a zero chance of winning North Carolina this time around...zippo...the coolaid is only being drunk by urbanites who put up with so much city dung from dusk til dawn they they accept even more dung...down to earth people don't accept it...they actually have independent thought...-grimreaper

    Wow…someone regurgitating “coolaid” and using this fictional drug as the center of their argument is claiming to have ‘independent thoughts!’

  • WooHoo2You May 16, 2012

    Was this approved by the White House? They have control over everybodys "numbers".......-Return of Finz

    I hear tinfoil hat sales are helping the economy improve…

  • grimreaper May 16, 2012

    "and....Barack Obama will get re-elected by a wide majority in the Triangle. It is out in the hinter-lands of NC where people vote with voo-doo spirits, religious opiates, and mumbo-jumbo ideologies." --ss3510

    Sorry, but he has a zero chance of winning North Carolina this time around...zippo...the coolaid is only being drunk by urbanites who put up with so much city dung from dusk til dawn they they accept even more dung...down to earth people don't accept it...they actually have independent thought...

  • WooHoo2You May 16, 2012

    Thanks Bev! (if everything bad is her doing by default everything good must be too)

  • FlySwater May 16, 2012

    Up x% from what? Give some flat numbers so we can see the big picture and see how good or bad things really are. Everybody knows the Triangle does better on average than the rest of the country.

    Has anybody gotten anything from this report?

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