Headwinds picking up for economy, housing
Posted July 19, 2012
Jobless claims announced Thursday morning were up 34,000 to 386,000 for the week ending July 14th adding additional concerns to the US job and economic recovery. Last week’s claims decrease was an anomaly, and the fundamentals for hiring are currently missing their mark.
A very disappointing housing report for June as Existing home sales dropped 5.4% last month. The negative number was quite a contrast to the expected positive number of 2.7% given by economists. Housing inventories increased slightly as well in June to a 6.6 months’ supply – up from 6.4 months in May. Does this peel away recent momentum from the housing sector?
The Leading Economic Indicators Report out Thursday came in weaker than expected as well. The LEI metric is a measure of future economic activity, and today’s report reinforces the notion that we are experiencing an economic slowdown. The Fed will be analyzing all economic data between now and their next meeting in a few weeks. Many economists are expecting some type of stimulus announcement over the next sixty days or so. The markets had a fairly numb reaction to the data this morning, and the 10 year remains in a very narrow range at a yield of 1.49% as of mid-morning Thursday. It’s likely going to take a huge European announcement or large US economic announcement (QE) to really move the interest rate needle in the short term.