US housing market under Euro influence
Posted May 21, 2012
Quiet Monday for housing, relatively speaking. News that slight progress was made at the G8 Summit over the weekend helped to move the 10-year slightly higher to a yield of 1.74 percent by market close. Last week we hit an all-time low yield of 1.69 percent on the 10-year, thanks to our European cousins. Their continued uncertainty plays like a broken record here in the US.
But this music is welcomed with open arms as you now know, bad news there is good news here for housing. Will Greece leave the EU or will they stay? No one knows right now, and quite honestly it seems as though it’s a daily back and forth as to whether or not they’re going to issue Euro Bonds, kick them out, let them stay, etc. The Greeks will host an election on June 17, and until then we’re likely to experience continued uncertainty around bond yields here in the US.
Housing affordability has reached record levels in many parts of the country thanks to record low mortgage rates and attractive home prices. This trend is also likely to continue for the foreseeable future thanks to strong housing fundamentals present in many US markets including the Triangle.
Lots of housing data being released later in the week: existing home sales, new home sales, jobless claims, durable goods, just to name a few. We’re not likely to see huge upside movement to treasuries or mortgage rates. So, for now I believe we’re going to continue to trade in this narrow but attractive range for mortgage rates and yields.