Jobs report is key
Posted May 1, 2012
This week, it’s all about jobs, and we’ll be watching Friday’s employment numbers for directional influence on mortgage rates as we head into the summer. It seems as though job estimates have been revised downwards, so growth expectations are already starting to moderate.
European economic slowdown concerns continue to weigh on U.S. markets, while helping to keep Treasury yields low and helping mortgage rates continue in their narrow trading range.
Here at home, domestic economic weakness continues with the Chicago PMI for April coming in at 56.2 versus the March reading of 62.2. Construction spending was up a mere 0.1 percent vs. estimates of 0.7 percent.
Triangle foreclosures have increased in year-over-year data from February 2011 to 2012. In new data out from Core Logic, we saw a .27 percent increase in foreclosure rates among outstanding mortgages here in the Raleigh-Cary metro area.
A sliver of good news arrived this morning with the ISM Index report rising to a reading of 54.8 in April from 53.4 in March. This was the highest reading since June 2011, and the index has now risen for 33 consecutive months. Strong fundamental news for us in that the ISM Index is a measure of manufacturer sentiment, and strong sentiment will hopefully translate into stronger sales and further economic improvement in the coming months.
Treasuries began a slight retreat after the ISM report was released, with the 10-Year yield moving to 1.95 by mid-morning.