Bulk of wet weather moves out of central NC; can't rule out an overnight storm

Posted April 3

— Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through central North Carolina Monday evening, and while the bulk of the wet weather has moved through the area, an isolated overnight storm cannot be ruled out, WRAL meteorologist Mike Maze said.

"In theory, the cold front is still to our west," Maze said. "We cannot rule out a shower or a storm until the cold front passes early Tuesday morning."

Once the cold front moves through, Tuesday afternoon will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the 80s.

The system moving through North Carolina tonight is the same one that has produced deadly weather in parts of the Deep South.

The warmth should continue throughout the work week, but the storms will reappear in days to come.

Temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the 80s and then will peak in the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday.

"More storms are possible Wednesday night and Thursday," Maze said. "We should see storms Wednesday night, and they could be severe."

Friday and the weekend should be calmer, but cooler, with highs in the 60s all three days.

Mid-Atlantic Radar

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  • Brody Clifton Apr 4, 5:29 a.m.
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    intense supercells with the threat of tornadoes, some possibly strong/long tracked, intense damaging winds, and large to perhaps very large hail (2+ inches) all appear probable in NC Thursday daylight hours.

  • Brody Clifton Apr 4, 5:21 a.m.
    user avatar

    Last trough turned out be to a dud in NC, one after it is the real deal, or at least appears to be. Moderately unstable warm sector over eastern NC Thursday, much more so than yesterday's low CAPE.
    SPC and models indicate tornado outbreak potential Alabama to SC Wednesday into evening/overnight.
    And then supercell tornado potential (followed by a line perhaps) for eastern NC Thursday daylight hours and before late afternoon via current timing. NAM model before I went to bed indicated 2300+ CAPE for Wayne Thursday along with strong shear/helicity (and every other supercell tornado parameter in place, including significant large/very large hail in NC)
    NC may get - tornado outbreak - Thursday I sure hope not, but I feel the chance is pretty high. Erase memories of the past two dud systems this next one in 48 hours will NOT be a dud. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but according to all data at this time, intense supercells with the threat of tornadoes, some possibly strong/long tracked,

  • Brody Clifton Apr 3, 10:06 a.m.
    user avatar

    The thing to watch radar for when the line moves into central NC is any storms ahead of it - those would quickly become supercells with a tornado threat. It's a low CAPE/high shear environment - I've read case studies on tornado outbreaks in Illinois in low CAPE/high shear environments. Probably going to be OK, but I'm adding the 'what if' just in case. Watch radar late afternoon onward.