WRAL SmartShopper

WRAL SmartShopper

Black Friday Predictions 2015

Posted October 5, 2015

Are you wondering what the best deals for Black Friday are going to be this year? Read on for a list of price predictions including TV's, tablets, laptops, smartphones, video games and more!

In order to come up with the numbers, went through over 150 ads and thousands of sale prices from last year, reviewed their 2014 Black Friday recap, researched prices from Amazon Prime Day 2015 and similar sales and came up with the following Black Friday predictions for 2015. These are just some of the highlights. You can read the full article at

It will be interesting to see if online deals will be good enough to generate 33% growth as predicted below. I know that I would rather shop online than fight the Black Friday crowds!

Be warned: Black Friday appears to be starting November 1st this year on They are rolling out a "Countdown to Black Friday" sale on 11/1 turning the month into "Black November," as Phil, from writes.

2015 Black Friday Predictions


Thanksgiving Total Sales: $3.79 Billion (Up 18.8% from 2014)

Black Friday Total Sales: $8.8 Billion (Down 3.29% from 2014)

Combined Total Sales: $12.59 Billion (Up 2.44%)

Black Friday Online Only Sales: $1.85 Billion (Up 22.92% from 2014)

Thanksgiving Online Only Sales: $1.5 Billion (Up 48.66% from 2014)

Combined Online Only Sales: $3.35 Billion (Up 33.25%)


32" units start at $70.
40" units start at $110.
50" units start at $175.


iPad Air 2 for $375 (save $125).
iPad Mini 4 (Just Released) for $325 (save $75).
Amazon Fire HD 6 for $60.
Samsung Galaxy Tabs start at $90 with an average price of $250.


Start at $95
Average Price: $300
MacBook Airs start at $769
MacBook Pros start at $849


iPhone 6s for $99 w/2-year contract
iPhone 6s Plus for $274 w/2-year contract.
iPhone 6 for $79 w/2-year contract with a possible gift card to net a price of $0.
Also, plenty of Android phones starting at $0 w/2-year contract.

While 2-year contracts are being phased out, many people will still be eligible. People that aren't will have to pay unsubsidized prices, which have been rare during Black Friday previously, but are expected to be much more common this year.

Video Games:

Xbox One bundles start at $299.99 with an average price of $374.99.
PlayStation 4 bundles start at $299.99 with an average price of $349.99.
Some of these bundles will include store gift cards of around $50.


The Apple Store will once again offer no direct discounts. They will, however, bundle gift cards worth $25 to $100 when paying full price.
Sales on Apple items including the watch, iPads, Macs, Apple TV, iPhones, and other devices will be readily available at most stores. All of these items are given special attention in our predictions.


JCPenney will once again have the highest average discount for their sale at around 60%. Walmart, Best Buy, and Amazon will once again be towards the bottom, with average store discounts of around 30%. The overall average discount on Black Friday for every store will be around 39.55% (sample of the average discount from 2014 for 22 stores with a few minor adjustments, and divided together by 22)


Average Discount: 35%
Wait until December for the best prices


Average Overall Discount: 49%

Firsts for 2015:

Ad Leak - October 12 (Harbor Freight)

Earliest Thanksgiving Day Start Time - 6 a.m. (Kmart)

First Black Friday Countdown Sale: November 1 (Amazon). This will run the entire month of November.

Most stores will start on Thanksgiving, and run their sales throughout the night into Friday, so there is not really an earliest Black Friday opening time.

****Do you plan to do any shopping during the Black Friday weekend this year? If so, do you plan to shop in stores, online or both?


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  • dianelucasrat Oct 6, 2015

    I will not be shopping on Thanksgiving Day!!! I will probably shop before --- not during -- and after !!!

  • ascherer Oct 6, 2015

    I will be spending time with almost all of my family Thanksgiving Day and will not be shopping - even at a grocery store. I may shop online Friday through Monday. There is nothing I want that justifies someone else having to miss out on time that should be with family and friends.

  • watchhillgirl Oct 5, 2015

    If I do any shopping on thanksgiving it will be from my couch and with my kids picking out what they want. Thanksgiving is time for family and friends. Not crowds in a store. But that is me...

  • jdouglas13 Oct 5, 2015

    If I shop Black Friday, it will definitely be online so probably more like Cyber Monday. I'm agree that stores should be closed on Thanksgiving. So unnecessary to interrupt the holiday.

  • tc35d Oct 5, 2015

    would be a good idea to make it black friday weekend

  • Faye Prosser -WRAL Smart Shopper Oct 5, 2015

    I am with all of you who disagree with Thanksgiving Day shopping. I worked in retail for many years and I am so glad stores were closed on Thanksgiving Day back then.

    Thanks for posting everyone!

  • msgooch2000 Oct 5, 2015

    I think we are going to see a rather large shift of Thanksgiving Day sales being online only. Retailers saw the trends last year - it's easier for shoppers to multitask in one place, so they shop and spend time with family all from the comfort of their living room. That said, I'm sure we will still see stores opening at 6pm or earlier on Thanksgiving... because they feel the need to pull people away from their families to work all night for no point whatsoever.

  • iwannasave0703 Oct 5, 2015

    Let me first off say that I am very disappointed in the fact that the majority of sales will be happening Thanksgiving Day. Whatever happened to spending time with family? Guess I am just a traditionalist.

    Don't get me wrong, I LOVE the excitement of Black Friday. I shopped every year for several years. It was the thrill of the best find for the cheapest price. However, I boycott shopping on Thanksgiving Day now. It's a holiday that has been cheapened just so a store could be open an hour sooner than the next one.

    A little sad that this is how our society has evolved...

  • ctya Oct 5, 2015

    I hope Walmart ot Target even Best Buy will have the Ipad mini on sale under $200.00 with gift card.